Andrew Luck plus the Indianapolis Colts look to put their lopsided Week 1 loss for the Buffalo Bills inside rearview mirror on Monday Night Football (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/WatchESPN).
The Colts face a New York Jets defense that closely resembles those of their Week 1 opponent. The Jets, whom new Bills coach Rex Ryan coached just last season, also have a tough line plus a blitz-happy scheme, on account of new coach Todd Bowles.
Bowles would rather blitz
No team blitzed often in 2013 and 2014 than Bowles’ Arizona Cardinals. Bowles was the defensive coordinator when those Cardinals teams used five or maybe more pass-rushers on 47 percent of the opponents’ dropbacks. That was nearly 4 percentage points more than any other team inside NFL during that span.
Bowles kept that trend going if the Jets blitzed Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel on 48 percent of dropbacks within a 31-10 conquer the Cleveland Browns in Week 1.
The Bills were 1 of 2 teams that blitzed with greater regularity than the Jets once they sent five or higher pass-rushers on 49 percent of Luck’s dropbacks over the season’s opening weekend. It was the fifth-highest blitz rate Luck has observed in 49 career games. He completed 10 of 24 passes for 115 yards (4.8 yards per attempt) with two touchdowns, one interception as well as sacks.
Why blitzing Luck could be a bad idea
Last week Bowles said “it’s a nightmare,” discussing what it’s like get yourself ready for Luck. Bowles could possibly be speaking to how good Luck is against the blitz as part of his career, rapidly poor results from the Bills.
Luck has thrown 3.2 touchdowns for each interception when blitzed, which can be twice as frequently when defenses send four or fewer pass-rushers. Luck’s Total QBR is 73 against five or even more pass-rushers and 62 against standard pressure within his career.
Although Bowles’ defense in New York is constantly on the blitz just like the ones he previously in Arizona, the final results weren’t of the same quality.
The Jets allowed Browns quarterbacks to finish 12 of 19 passes for 153 yards once they sent five or maybe more pass-rushers in Week 1, and Manziel found success throwing deep.
On a third-and-19 play inside the second quarter, the Jets rushed five, leaving wide receiver Travis Benjamin one-on-one with cornerback Antonio Cromartie on the exterior. Benjamin easily beat Cromartie, that's questionable for Monday night’s game having a leg injury, for that 54-yard score.
The Jets were better sending four or fewer against Manziel. They held him to a few.2 yards per attempt against standard pressure (8.1 resistant to the blitz), forcing two fumbles within the process.
They sent four on third-and-18 and second-and-10 plays early from the fourth quarter, forcing Manziel through his progressions while dropping into zone coverage downfield. Muhammad Wilkerson forced a fumble around the third-and-18 play before Darrelle Revis recovered with the Jets. Trevor Reilly came about the offense’s left side within the second-down play as Manziel had his progressions and forced another fumble. That one was recovered by Quinton Coples.
Luck’s 50th game
Monday’s game will likely be Luck’s 50th within the regular season. The Elias Sports Bureau notes that Luck needs two touchdown passes to sneak into the top 5 all-time through 50 games. The group comprises Dan Marino (114), Kurt Warner (101), Peyton Manning (91), Johnny Unitas (91) and Carson Palmer (90). Luck is tied with Matthew Stafford, who had 88 passing touchdowns within his first 50 games.
